"The stock market is just a casino."
You've said it. Your uncle definitely said it. It's the single most popular reason smart, cautious people never buy a single share — and stay poor while doing it.
Here's the problem: it's mathematically false. And a financial expert just put an 89-year receipt on the table to prove it.
The stat that ends the argument
On October 18, 2025, Eric Pan — a GOBankingRates Top 100 financial voice — ran the numbers on the S&P 500 (SPY) going all the way back to 1936.
The finding is almost rude in how simple it is:
- Every single rolling 20-year period since 1936 posted a positive return.
- That's through the Great Depression's aftermath, WWII, the 1970s stagflation, Black Monday, the dot-com crash, 2008, and COVID.
- Translation: no investor who held the S&P 500 for 20 years has ever lost money. Not one.
Now compare that to a casino. In a casino, the house edge guarantees you lose over time. In the S&P 500, time has been the thing that guarantees you win. Those aren't the same game. They're opposites.
Gambling is a bet against the odds. This is the odds.
A roulette wheel doesn't grow earnings. Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA do. When you buy the index, you own a slice of the most profitable companies on Earth reinvesting in themselves for decades. The "randomness" you fear is just short-term noise on top of a very long, very upward line.
"Okay, but isn't NOW the worst time? This bull market feels ancient."
This is the second excuse — the "I missed it" fear. It also doesn't survive contact with the data.
A Morningstar chart published December 31, 2025 looked at every market since 1926. On average, it took markets 37 months just to recover a 20%+ drawdown. This current bull market is barely 3 years old — and here's the kicker:
- It's up roughly 93% off its September 2022 low.
- That's a 22.5% per year pace.
- Historically, bull markets that young are not stretched — they've often had years left to run.
So the market doesn't "feel scary-long" because it's about to collapse. It feels that way because most people are still psychologically stuck in 2022.
2025 was supposed to be the year it all broke. It didn't.
Remember the tariff panic? In April 2025 the market cratered on trade-war fears. Everyone braced for the crash.
Instead, the S&P 500 (SPX) surged nearly 39% from its April low and finished 2025 up 17.9% including dividends — its third straight double-digit year. That pushed the bull market's total return to 100.6% since October 2022.
The people who "waited for clarity" after the tariff scare? They watched a 39% recovery from the sidelines. That's the real cost of "playing it safe."
Here's who was actually buying — and it wasn't Wall Street
This is the plot twist that should change how you think about "dumb money."
In July 2025, everyday retail investors net bought $10.08 billion in U.S. stocks — while big institutions net SOLD $26.8 billion. Regular people were buying the dip the pros were dumping.
And it's not a one-off. In the first half of 2025, retail investors poured in $1.3 billion per day — up 32.6% year over year. Retail now drives about 20.5% of daily equity trading volume, up from under 10% a decade ago.
The story you've been told is that retail investors are reckless meme-gamblers. The data says the opposite: everyday people are steadily, systematically building wealth — and lately, they've been on the right side of the trade more often than the suits.
So what's your actual excuse now?
Let's tally the myths this data just demolished:
- "It's gambling" — 89 years, zero losing 20-year periods.
- "I missed the run" — this bull is only 3 years old, historically early.
- "Only Wall Street wins" — retail out-traded institutions through 2025.
You don't need a lump sum. You don't need to time the top. You need time in the market — the one variable the 1936 data proves matters most.
How to buy this on AlphaEx
You can own a piece of the S&P 500's biggest names — Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, Microsoft — in a few minutes. Start with any amount:
- 1. Create your account on AlphaEx — takes about two minutes.
- 2. Deposit whatever you're comfortable with. There's no "minimum to be taken seriously" here.
- 3. Search the stock — type a ticker like SPY, AAPL, or NVDA.
- 4. Hit Buy — you now own real shares.
- 5. Track your live profit right on your dashboard, day by day.
- 6. Sell to balance whenever you want to lock in gains or rebalance.
That's it. The hardest part was believing you were allowed to start — and the data just handled that for you.
Come argue with us (and steal some ideas)
If you're still skeptical — good. Bring that skepticism to our AlphaEx Telegram community, where the team and thousands of everyday investors break down exactly the kind of moves in this post: why retail out-bought institutions in July, whether this bull really has room to run, and which names to watch next. It's free to join, and fresh trade ideas get shared there daily. It's the easiest way to go from "I don't get stocks" to "I bought my first share and I know why."
The 20-year clock starts the day you buy
Every legendary investor started with one purchase. The data says the odds have been on your side for 89 years — but only if you're actually in the game.
Stop watching. Start owning. Open your AlphaEx account and buy your first share today.